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Markus Grillitsch

Senior Lecturer

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The black box of regional growth

Author

  • Markus Grillitsch
  • Mikhail Martynovich
  • Rune Dahl Fitjar
  • Silje Haus-Reve

Summary, in English

Regional growth models leave a large share of variation unexplained. While we should continuously aim to improve these models, the unique combination of conditions and human agency in each region will also invariably lead to region-specific growth trajectories. Theoretically, we should thus expect systematic deviations from growth predictions. We propose an approach to explore these unexplained deviations and to detect regions that perform unexpectedly well or badly in certain periods. We illustrate the approach using data for Sweden from 1990 to 2016. We find systematic patterns of unexplained periodic regional growth deviations outweighing the effect of generic structural factors.

Department/s

  • Department of Human Geography
  • CIRCLE
  • Centre for Innovation, Research and Competence in the Learning Economy

Publishing year

2021-01-29

Language

English

Publication/Series

Journal of Geographical Systems

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Springer

Topic

  • Human Geography

Keywords

  • Case selection methodology
  • Outlier regions
  • Path-dependency
  • Regional development
  • Regional growth models
  • Residual analysis

Status

Epub

Project

  • Regional Growth against all odds

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1435-5930